FAJAR.CO.ID – Before the fuel price assessment on April 1, 2026, the Indonesian government has not yet issued an official decision regarding the increase in prices of subsidized fuels such as Pertalite and Diesel. Although there is potential for price adjustment due to fluctuations in global oil prices and the rupee exchange rate, the government tends to curb the increase in fuel subsidies in order to maintain the purchasing power of the population.

Fuel Price Assessment and Market Forecast

At the start of each month, the government regularly assesses fuel prices, which are generally adjusted to global market conditions and the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar. However, so far no official announcement has been made regarding the increase in subsidized fuel prices from April 1, 2026.

Several analysts predict that if the upward trend in global oil prices continues, pertalite prices could range between IDR 10,500 and IDR 11,000 per liter, with the worst case reaching IDR 12,000 per liter. Meanwhile, diesel subsidies are expected to increase from IDR 7,150 to IDR 7,500 per liter.

Factors Driving Potential Increases in Fuel Prices

Rising global oil prices are one of the main factors increasing fuel import and production costs. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East region, particularly over strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, also threaten the smooth flow of global oil supplies. Moreover, the weakening exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar increases the burden of energy import costs.

Government strategy to limit the increase in subsidized fuels

The government has chosen to curb the increase in subsidized fuel prices in order to maintain economic stability and the purchasing power of the population. Usually, this step is followed by providing additional subsidies or postponing price increases, even if global oil prices rise.